I once was a Jonathan aficionado. I had never had any reason to doubt his ability to preside over the affairs of the Nigerian state, nor did I have any informed reason to oppose his presidency or presidential aspirations. This was just part of the fixated mindset which that the man Goodluck Ebele Jonathan or GEJ as he is fondly called, been divinely destined and anointed to be Nigeria's next president. Some local political leaders have even resulted to demagoguery in a bid to stamp a seal of approval on the presidency of GEJ by ascribing his ascendancy to God; they even went as far as telling Nigerians that any attempt to resist Jonathan would amount to resisting God.
However, it is in my view that in a democracy, making an informed choice is a fundamental right of the people and thus it must be guaranteed and protected by all concerned. As events continue to unfold in my country within the last few months, especially with the worsening security situation across the land typified by the endless killings in Jos (Plateau state, Nigeria) and the endless and unresolved bomb blasts, doubt started to gradually creep into my mind.
A whole lot of us started to ask ourselves if GEJ was the man my troubled country desperately needed to get it out of the woods. It wasn't until the 23rd of February, 2011 when I stumbled upon a publication of the highly respected World Economic Forum (WEF) that my views of the abilities, person and intentions of GEJ took a complete reversal
In just about 8 months of GEJ’s presidency, our dear country has witnessed significant slide down almost all indicators used by the World Economic Forum (WEF) to measure the competitiveness of countries. In the just 2010 – 2011 WEF Global Competitiveness Report (GCI) saw Nigeria plunge to 127th position from the 99th position in the 2009 – 2010 ranking.
The GCI report contributes to the understanding of the key factors determining economic growth; it helps to explain why some countries are more successful than others in raising income levels and opportunities for their respective populations, and offers policymakers and business leaders an important tool in the formulation of improved economic policies and institutional reforms.
At the inception of late Umar Musa Yar’Adua’s presidency, we were ranked 94th, he lost 5 places but GEJ has remarkably lost 28 places in just a few months. Now here is how the GCI summarized Nigeria’s performance:
“Nigeria has plunged in the rankings this year to 127th position, the result of a weakening across many aspects of the Index, most notably in the assessment of the institutional environment and the country’s macroeconomic stability. Indeed, while the macroeconomic environment was previously the country’s greatest strength, its ranking has gone from 20th last year all the way down to 97th this year.
A large fiscal surplus has turned to deficit, the interest rate spread has increased measurably, and the country credit rating places Nigeria 91st out of all countries covered. There has also been a measurable weakening in measures of Nigeria’s institutional environment, ranked 121st, down from 102nd last year. There are significant and increasing concerns about the protection of property rights, ethics and corruption, undue influence, and government inefficiencies. Private institutions also receive a worsening assessment, with poor corporate ethics (125th) and weak auditing and reporting standards (130th) of particular concern.
The security situation in the country continues to be dire (ranked 123rd). Additionally, Nigeria receives poor assessments for its infrastructure (135th) as well as its health and primary education levels (137th). In addition, the country is not harnessing the latest technologies for productivity enhancements, as demonstrated by its low rates of ICT penetration.
While the situation is therefore difficult, it is important to note that Nigeria also has a number of strengths on which to build its competitiveness. The country benefits from a relatively large market (30th) providing its companies with opportunities for economies of scale, as well as businesses that are sophisticated by regional standards (76th), with some cluster development companies that tend to hire professional managers and delegate decision-making authority within the organization.1”
Some of the key points we should note are:
• Weak institutional environment
• Fiscal irresponsibility
• Rampant and pervasive corruption (traceable to weak police force, judiciary and other government institutions responsible for contain the menace of corruption. Nigeria’s corruption dilemma has entered a “free for all” phase)
• Increasing power of a few who can easily influence GEJ’s government (cartels, god-fatherism, and various interest groups)
• Government inefficiency (which is still tied to weak institutional environment)
• Worsening security situation.
GEJ has the worst economic team, Segun Aganga may have done well for himself, considering the fact that he rose in his career to MD of Goldman Sachs UK, but apparently he cannot be said to be managing Nigeria’s finances prudently, not to talk about the insatiable greed of our political class, especially those in the national assembly (the honourable senators and legislators, honourable thieves perhaps.)
Imagine a country with a large fiscal surplus (large foreign reserve) transformed to a debtor nation just in a couple of months. Nobody is telling Nigerians the truth about how our country is being run, this explains why the honourable thieves are so reluctant to pass the Freedom of Information Bill (FOI), and so no one gets to ask questions. We continue to toe a dangerous fiscal path, because we are running an unsustainable economy.
Imagine an economy run on generators and yet GEJ claims to have increased power output by 4000megawatts, even for those who can afford to buy generators, the high cost of diesel is exerting a heavy toll on them and lest I forget the diesel and generator cartels, they are his friends, so he protects their interest. Imagine the price of crude falls from the high price of today to about $30 per barrel, Nigeria’s economy will quickly return to the 70s and 80s style economic recession which made Nigeria broke and forced us into debts.
We seem to have forgotten Shagari’s austerity measures and IBB’s structural adjustment programs and the hardship they brought along to Nigerians in those days. The primary cause was fiscal irresponsibility which we are witnessing today at an alarming rate under GEJ’s government and his economic team.
Weak institutional environment is just a subtle way of saying GEJ is ineffective, he cannot exert himself as Nigeria’s president. He has failed to exert his personality or influence over his ministers and other subordinates, for those of us who thinks GEJ is the best thing that has happened to us simply because his name is Goodluck, should better wake up from their dream because great nations were not built out of good luck or luck as the case may be. GEJ the jamboree president, that’s what I think he is. With his empty rhetorics.
Nigerians should in the light of the available facts make an unbiased and honest assessment of the man called GEJ, his political party (the ruling Peoples Democracy Party – PDP) and their ability to preside over the affairs of this troubled nation. Speaking for myself, and bearing in mind the antecedents of the PDP, I doubt that any good thing can come out of that political party. If in less than a year as president, he has managed to reverse all the gains of the Obasanjo years (even though Obasanjo’s presidency was flawed in its own way, he is far better than what we have today, and I can rate him as a genius when compared to GEJ) imagine what he will deliver to us in 4yrs. Since the only thing we seem to know how to do is mine and export crude oil, God help us that the price does not tumble on our heads, because if it does, we would simply go back to the oil doom years.
Nigeria’s pain is made worse by the fact that there seems to be very little in terms of a credible alternative to the PDP and Jonathan, the foremost opposition party, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which is being led by the ubiquitous godfather; Bola Tinubu seems to be running it as his personal fiefdom. An opposition party which claims itself to be a better option to the PDP, but yet it lacks internal democracy were candidates for political post emerge on the party platform without primaries, simply because Tinubu dashes out the ticket to friends and family members2. In all of this, one is forced to ask, what is the way out for Nigeria?
We cannot feel unconcerned about the status quo particularly considering the popular uprisings of the people in North Africa and the Middle East3. While we continue to ponder what way forward for our dear country, recent global events should also serve as a clear message to those who have held the nation hostage to their arbitrary will, that no matter how long it may take, a time will come when those who have been dispossessed will eventually turn around to demand what is rightfully due to them. For Nigeria, that time may not be too far away.
Bibliography:
1World Economic Forum’s GCI report 2010 - 2011:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11.pdf
2 The House Tinubu Built:
http://www.saharareporters.com/article/house-tinubu-built
3 Popular uprisings in Arab nations not tilting towards fundamentalism:
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Popular-uprisings-in-Arab-nations-not-tilting-towards-fundamentalism,-Islam-expert-says-20821.html
Friday, February 25, 2011
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